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每月動向

2024年6月基金投資動向

2024年06月07日

市場再度揣測美國年内降息引發美股上升,中國經濟數據走向將影響中港股市走勢。

加拿大央行在6月5日宣佈將利率下調0.25個百分點至4.75%,成為七國集團(G7)中最早採取掉頭降息行動的國家。該央行表示,他們有信心實現2%的通脹目標,如果通脹持續下降,他們有理由預期將進一步降息。翌日,歐洲央行亦宣佈降息0.25個百分點,將主要再融資利率從4.5%降至4.25%,存款工具利率從4%降至3.75%,邊際貸款利率從4.75%降至4.5%。這一系列降息舉措符合市場預期,也是自2019年以來的首次降息。

美國的利率走勢如何?5月31日公佈的個人消費開支(PCE)物價指數對美股有支持。該數據出台後,市場認為通脹未有進一步惡化,並再度揣測美聯儲可能會在今年内降息1-2次。道指當日上漲574點,漲幅達1.51%,逆轉該週連續三天下跌的趨勢。不過,最近美國前財長薩默斯(Lawrence Summers)提出了他的觀點,表示市場應該適應目前利率區間,並且長期來看,利率可能會高於當前水平。他指出,通脹並沒有持續朝著央行設定的2%目標發展。他預計美國經濟將放緩及出現軟著陸。此外,薩默斯認為如果特朗普當選總統,他廣泛的進口關稅措施可能會導致通脹顯著上升。市場將密切關注美國當地時間6月12日公佈的居民消費價格指數(CPI),以及美聯儲在同一天公佈的利率決議和會後聲明,以觀察是否會增加降息的預期。

香港恒生指數於在5月20日高見19,706點後回落,並在5月31日低見18,077點,隨後在18,300 至18,700點之間徘徊。市場正在期待更多利好消息的出台,以進一步帶動股市成交金額回升,進而推高股市表現。

中、港兩地經濟息息相關。根據數據顯示,5月份財新中國製造業採購經理指數(PMI)為51.7,比4月份上升了0.3個百分點,達到2022年7月以來的最高水平,表明製造業生產經營活動的擴張加速。然而,中國國家統計局最近公佈的5月份製造業PMI為49.5,下降了0.9個百分點,連續兩個月擴張後回落至收縮區間。市場分析認為,中國內地的製造業景氣度在5月份保持向好,企業保持樂觀情緒,但價格水平仍然偏低。另外,就業壓力較大、需求弱於供應仍然是當前中國經濟面臨的重要問題。香港股市受內地A股表現影響,倘若內地經濟數據能夠持續回升,將對中港股市有利。

投資者透過基金組合投資,由專業投資經理管理,投資組合可以分佈在不同地區、資產、行業、公司等,有助分散風險。客戶如欲查詢有關基金資訊,歡迎致電致富理財熱線: 2500 9188 聯絡我們。



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