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每月動向

2024年11月基金投資動向

2024年10月31日

美國總統大選將於11月5日舉行,市場關注特朗普的競選勢頭及其政策可能引發的高通脹,金磚國家會議也將探討全球經濟新秩序。

2024年11月

基金投資動向

美國總統大選進入倒數階段,預定於2024年11月5日(星期二)舉行,選情備受市場關注。近期市場分析顯示,前總統特朗普的競選勢頭回升,勝選的機率較高。根據一些經濟學家的觀點,普遍認為如果特朗普再次當選,他實施的政策將會比起賀錦麗帶來更高的通脹。不少專家亦對特朗普的政策表達了擔憂,特別是關於內部減稅和外部加徵關稅。

從傳統經濟理論來看,減稅政策通常能刺激投資和消費需求,進而提高經濟增長,同時也會直接提升企業的淨利潤,推動股市上漲。然而,這樣的政策也會增加通脹壓力,造成需求拉動型通貨膨脹(Demand-pull inflation)。加徵關稅則可能推高消費者的生活成本,抑制投資和消費需求,拖慢經濟增長,但若關稅大部分最終轉嫁了給消費者,則可能造成成本推動型通貨膨脹(Cost-push inflation)。

美聯儲在9月份下調聯邦基金利率,市場普遍預期美國已進入減息周期。中美兩國的貨幣政策有望同步發展。利率的下降可能削弱美元的吸引力,促使資金流向其他「低窪」市場和資產。而中國股市的估值相對便宜,這或有助於提升其吸引力。然而,地緣政治因素仍然不可忽視,近期美元的回升或正是受到這些因素影響,黃金價格也因此屢創歷史新高。美匯和美國國債收益率的上升對亞太股市造成了一定的壓力,但分析普遍認為美國減息的整體趨勢似乎並未改變。隨著多個國家的中央銀行相繼減息以促進經濟增長,分析人士認為資金將會逐步回流至亞洲股市。

上月內地推出了一系列的「組合拳」宏觀調控措施,在預期寬鬆貨幣政策的情況下,加大財政措施和強化金融利好政策,使中港兩地股市活躍,吸引投資者重新關注A股市場,評估投資機會,並增配中港股市的組合比例。有市場報告指出,目前全球互惠基金在中國股票中的整體權重遠低於2021年水平,因此資金可能會調整以使中國的投資恢復到更合理的水平。

金磚國家峰會於2024年10月22至24日在俄羅斯喀山舉行。聯合國秘書長古特雷斯指出,金磚國家在促進全球發展和安全方面能發揮更重要的作用。俄方積極推動建立新的全球金融支付系統,名為「金磚之橋」,旨在減少對美元的依賴並避免西方制裁。有評論認為,金磚國家可能逐漸形成抗衡西方的「全球南方」(Global South)代表組織,值得觀察其是否會成為新世界秩序的經濟中心。

投資者透過基金組合投資,由專業投資經理管理,投資組合可以分佈在不同地區、資產、行業、公司等,有助分散風險。客戶如欲查詢有關基金資訊,歡迎致電致富理財熱線: 2500 9188 聯絡我們。



免責聲明
上述報告由致富證券有限公司(「本公司」)所提供,所載之內容或意見乃根據本公司認為可靠之資料來源來編製,惟本公司並不就此等內容之準確性、完整性及正確性作出明示或默示之保證。上述報告內之所有意見均可在不作另行通知之下作出更改。上述報告的作用純粹為提供資訊,並不應視為對上述報告內提及的任何產品買賣或交易之專業推介、建議、邀請或要約。本公司及其附屬公司、僱員及其家屬及有關人士可於任何時間持有、買賣或以市場認可之方式,包括以代理人或當事人對本報告內提及的任何產品進行投資或買賣。投資附帶風險,投資者需注意投資項目之價值可升亦可跌,而過往之表現亦不一定反映未來之表現。投資者進行投資前請尋求獨立之投資意見。本公司在法律上均不負責任何人因使用本報告內資料而蒙受的任何直接或間接損失。本公司擁有此報告內容之版權,在未獲本公司許可前,不得翻印、分發或發行本報告以作任何用途。

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